Events have collided in a way that even the most imaginative fiction writer couldn't have conjured up: a global assault by an enemy that no one can see, and a nearly-9-minute-long murder of a black man by a white police officer captured on video for the world to see.
At the protests that the killing of George Floyd triggered, responses as global as COVID-19, many people are wearing masks and distancing themselves as they march, kneel, or lie down chanting "I can't breathe." But some are not following public health recommendations. And many are shouting, as police hurl chemicals that make people cough. What will the consequences of the massive and necessary Black Lives Matter protests be on public health?
The mathematical models used to predict the next stages of the pandemic may factor in the expected – Memorial Day celebrations and phased reopenings. But they couldn't have foreseen the events of the past two and a half weeks. How can people in close proximity for extended periods of time, moving and outdoors but hollering and crying, even if masked, affect transmissibility of the coronavirus? That seems like too many variables to model, but some recent technical articles might provide some insight.
To continue reading, go to my blog DNA Science, where this post first appeared.